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Just a reminder for those of you headed to Further Confusion this weekend that there are two FWG-sponsored panels on the schedule:

Furry Writers’ Guild Reading
Friday, January 15, 5:00 – 6:30 PM
Hilton: Santa Clara
(Members: If interested in participating in the reading, please contact Mary E. Lowd.)
The Furry Writers’ Guild has a wide range of members who write in all different styles. Come listen to members of the FWG read from their work.

Furry Writers’ Guild Meet & Greet
Friday, January 15, 9:30 – 11:00 PM
Marriott: Almaden
The Furry Writers’ Guild exists to support and connect members of the furry writing community. Come meet other writers and talk about the future of furry writing. Open to all — both members and newcomers!

Thanks to Mary E. Lowd and Chipotle for hosting the events!

Ground Control to Major Furry, Commencing post, questions on.

What is in your ‘sonas trophy case?

submitted by HonorInDefeat
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Honestly, this might be pretty long.

So, recently (read: since making an account), I've noticed quite a few artists doing free art for those without it. And since I don't know how to tag them honestly, I just wanted to give a huge thanks. It helps the community and just proves how the people here are honestly the nicest, most generous people of any fandom. For as accepting as you are, none of you should get any hate, and I hope for you all to have a great, long and lucky life (other than winning the lottery, I get that one :P). Honestly these artists are the best in the community, beating people like falvie, because honestly, the generosity has no limits.

TL;DR: Thank you to all the generous furs who do free art sometimes, it really helps the community.

NINJA EDIT: the main post is in a box now. Why? No clue.

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[adjective][species] regularly informally collaborates with the International Anthropomorphic Research Project (IARP), a collection of psychologists and sociologists looking at the furry community. We are amateurs, they are professionals. We have the freedom to present anything we find interesting; they are constrained by the usual rules of academic engagement.

Nuka, a furry with a PhD in social psychology, is a long-time member of the IARP as well as an occasional contributor to [a][s]. In conversation about data (the best kind of conversation), he noted a surprising finding from his research:

“The IARP has found evidence that wearing ears (but not other accessories or fursuits) is particularly associated with depression and reduced self-esteem in furries.”

I used this interesting statistical tidbit during an [adjective][species] panel (Confuzzled 2015), as an example of a surprise hidden in the data: something you’d never expect, or think to look for. It provoked a few questions from the audience, which Nuka and I do our best to answer here.

First, a note about data in general. A statistical outlier implies, but doesn’t prove, a correlation. If we are working with a 95% confidence interval, then by definition a sample of random data will show a statistically significant correlation 5% of the time.

We are not making any statistical claims about a correlation between ears and depression. Nuka chooses his language carefully, as befits a professional scientist. He has not provided, and I have not asked for, a formal analysis of the data in question. Our discussion takes place at an intermediate step in the process of data analysis: something has been found but we don’t know what it means.

We ask the reader to accept our starting point at face value—there is evidence that wearing ears is particularly associated with depression and reduced self-esteem in furries—without any further statistical justification.

JM:

Hi Nuka! Thanks for contributing your thoughts.

I brought it up ears & depression in my [a][s] panel for a few reasons, mostly not related to the question at all – it was just something to engage the audience. But over the con several furs came up to me and asked about it, many with personal anecdotes, and it piqued my curiosity. I wondered if you’ve been able to shed any more light on it.

Here is my thinking. If ear-wearing is associated with depression, this means one of four things:

1. A random quirk in the data.
2. Furries who wear ears are more likely to suffer depression as a result of something related to the ears.
3. There is a common root or driver for ear-wearing and depression among furries.
4. Furries who suffer from depression are more likely to choose to wear ears.

I got the impression that furries with depression wore ears as an attempt to put on a brave, positive face to the world. I think they look in the mirror and see themselves with ears, and see that the perky ears have a positive effect on how they see themselves. I think that makes them feel less trapped in the endless grey present-tense of depression, because they can imagine the perky ear wearer being positive and doing happy things.

This fits into category (4) above, and suggests that ear-wearing is a small but positive step for sufferers of depression. And in the way that your research on fursona personality (and also the superhero/cosplay research by others) suggests – the act of dressing up can help people find a path to improved mental health.

Of course this is speculation, and tarred by the fact that all these people attended a furry convention and are probably on the happier/social end of the scale when it comes to current or former sufferers of depression.

A further interesting thought was brought up by a few people: does incidence of depression (or related results) change over time for ear-wearers? That is, is there evidence that ear-wearing is a sign of improvement? I know you’re still early in your longitudinal survey, and may not be asking the relevant questions, but I figured it was worth asking.

Nuka:

JM is absolutely correct that we’ve found a statistically significant relationship between wearing ears and reduced self-esteem in a relatively large sample of furries. JM is also correct in stating that caution is prudent when trying to interpret these sorts of results, for a few reasons, related to what’s already been mentioned above.

The observed relationship occurred without a hypothesis or theory to back it up. Theories are of incredible importance to researchers – they help us to avoid what we call “fishing expeditions”. What’s a fishing expedition? Imagine I had a dataset with HUNDREDS of variables in it. As JM correctly stated above, statistics are based on confidence intervals and probability, meaning that a percentage of our observed significant findings will be simply due to random noise in the data. As such, if I pore over hundreds or thousands of variables, eventually, I’m going to find SOMETHING that reaches a level of statistical significance. Is this a “real” finding, or just noise in the data? How do we tell?

Researchers have two tools at their disposal: theory and replication.

Theory: The difference between a genuine finding and random noise in a fishing expedition can come down to having a theory. If the researcher has a theory about how two variables interact, they create an “a priori” (before the fact) hypothesis – this means that the researcher is predicting a specific relationship between these two variables. This avoids the problem of the fishing expedition: if you find a relationship between those two particular variables, it’s FAR less likely to be random noise than if you were to trudge through hundreds of variables and stumble upon it that way. Theories are usually grounded in prior empirical work, and give researchers good reason to expect a relationship between two variables, making researchers far more confident in a finding if they “called it” beforehand.

Replication: A single study is seldom enough to close the book on a subject. A good researcher likes to be sure about what they’ve found before they consider it fact. As such, if they DO stumble upon something interesting during a fishing expedition through their data, the first thing on their mind is “will this replicate?” In other words, if I ran the study again, would I find the same result? Random noise can be surprisingly predictable. One such predictable trait is something called “regression to the mean” – an abnormally high or low result that’s due to chance will, over time, become more normal. In other words, if a finding was just a fluke the first time, you really shouldn’t see it the second time. In other words, if researchers find something during a fishing expedition and they find it AGAIN when they replicate (re-do) the study, researchers can be fairly confident it’s not just a fluke, but a genuine relationship. You’ll notice this essentially means forming an a priori hypothesis like the one mentioned above for the second round of data collection.

What does all of this statistical gobbledygook have to do with furry ears and self-esteem? Well, a lot, actually! We had no theoretical reason to predict that wearing furry ears would relate to self-esteem. Of course, we can come up with plenty of reasons to explain why these two things might be related post-hoc (after-the-fact), but it’s entirely possible that the relationship was just a fluke. Of course, now that we’ve observed this potentially-interesting relationship, the first thing on our minds is replication – can we find it again, now that we’re looking for it? This means collecting more data on the subject. If, looking at the data, we find the same relationship, then we can be reasonably confident there’s a relationship between ear-wearing and reduced self-esteem.

It’s also worth asking why these two variables might be related: why should wearing ears be related to self-esteem? If we assume that it wasn’t a statistical fluke (which remains to be seen), we see that JM has outlined three possibilities:

a) Ear-wearing causes low self-esteem
b) Low self-esteem people wear ears
c) Some other variable causes both low self-esteem and ear-wearing

Without “temporal” data—data taken at more than one point in time, it’s impossible to establish causal direction—impossible to say which variable “causes” the other to happen. That said, there are rational reasons to expect / predict all of these explanations to be true:

a) Ear-wearing causes low self-esteem: this is perhaps the weakest of the three alternatives, in part because a myriad of variables contributes to a person’s self-esteem, and it seems unlikely that any one behavior would significantly push a person’s self-esteem around. However, it may be the case that owning / wearing furry ears may be an indirect measure of how “out” a person is as a furry (how much they let other people know they’re a furry), and insofar as they’re “out” in a hostile environment (e.g., friends / family that look down upon furries), this may be bad for their self-esteem. However, for this to be true, you would have to ignore other data showing that self-disclosure, in general, is associated with better self-esteem. It’s also possible that, within the context of the furry fandom, wearing ears at conventions may make some furries feel disappointed that they can’t more fully express their fursona (e.g., having a fursuit). This, of course, makes a number of assumptions (e.g., people who wear ears really want a fursuit, and are really upset they don’t have one) that, to date, we have no data to support.

b) Low self-esteem people wear ears: there may be something to this prediction, as JM has already speculated. Past data has shown that a furry’s relationship to their fursona can help us to predict their self-esteem – namely, how “close” they feel to their fursona. Furries who feel a lot of overlap between themselves and their fursonas tend to be better off self-esteem wise, while furries who feel like there is a world of difference between themselves and their fursonas tend to have lower self-esteem. Given this, wearing furry ears may be an indicator that furries felt a lot of “distance” between themselves and their fursona (e.g., I need to wear these ears to feel more like my fursona). There is, to date, no data on this. The argument would be that furries wearing ears would be reminded of just how much difference there is between themselves and their fursona (e.g., looking in a mirror), which may contribute to negative self-esteem. Of course, the issue gets doubly messy when you realize that significant distance between oneself and their fursona may, itself, be caused by low self-esteem (my life sucks, so I’m creating a fursona who’s totally not like me to escape how much it sucks).

c) Some third variable is causing both low self-esteem and ear-wearing. This, I would argue, is perhaps the strongest candidate for explaining this potential relationship. There are numerous third variables that may explain BOTH ear-wearing and low self-esteem. For example – ears are relatively cheap to obtain (e.g., relative to, say, a fursuit, or even a tail). As such, it may be the case that wearing ears (as opposed to other pieces of furry swag) may indicate having less money at one’s disposal. Low socio-economic status may thusly predict BOTH purchasing of ears (as opposed to more expensive furry gear) AND lower self-esteem (people don’t feel good about themselves if they feel poor). Another possible third variable: perhaps ears are one of the first purchases made by newer, younger members of the furry fandom (anecdotally, a pair of ears were the first furry-themed purchase I made upon entering the fandom). It may thus be the case that being a young, new furry in the fandom may predict both buying a pair of ears AND having low self-esteem (questioning whether you belong in the fandom, feeling like a “noob” doesn’t feel very good, possibly still struggling with “coming out” to friends and family).

In summary, while I share JM’s enthusiasm for this neat, unexpected finding, I remain reserved about the findings until they’ve been replicated. At that point, once we’ve established that it’s a consistent relationship and not an anomaly, the theory-building begins: why ears and not other furry accessories? What is the causal direction? Might there be third variables? What does this tell us about the motivations underlying furry participation in the fandom? All questions for future studies!

Dr Courtney “Nuka” Plante is co-founder of the International Anthropomorphic Research Project.

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IF YOU HAVE HELPED TO ORGANIZE A FURRY CONVENTION, PLEASE COMMENT BELOW.

Fred Patten wants to put your con in a fandom history book from an academic publisher. (See previous articles from “Furry’s favorite historian and reviewer“.)  There are pieces of info lacking from many cons – Fred can make it clear what’s needed from which ones.  He’ll report it like this example, the history of RAINFURREST.  – Patch  

Fred’s message:

For the last two years, I have been compiling a history of all furry conventions throughout the world from 1989 through the end of 2015.  It has been accepted by a publisher, McFarland.  It covers 112 furry conventions in North and South America, Asia, Australasia, and Europe.  The manuscript is 277 pages. My deadline for finishing is March 1, 2016.

Many convention committees have given full information; others have not answered at all.  Also, I am trying to get at least one illustration for each convention — art such as website logos, conbook covers, posters, illustrated membership badges, illustrated hotel room keys; whatever a committee wants to submit.  McFarland says that none of the illustrations on the Internet are of high enough resolution for book publication, so I cannot just framegrab an illustration from the Internet.  They need an electronic file of 300 DPI or better.

I suspect that some lack of replies are due to a committee member who is not answering or passing them on.  So a public announcement might reach a committee member who wants their convention represented in my book with all questions answered.

Here is what I have on one convention.

Con book cover

RainFurrest

RainFurrest was created to replace the Conifur Northwest by Gene Armstrong and Trap Winters in Seattle, at the same time that All Fur Fun was created in Spokane for the same purpose.  RainFurrest had its act together and succeeded where All Fur Fun faded away after three years.  After the first RainFurrest, it was incorporated as Rainfurrest Anthropomorphics International (RAIn).  RainFurrest is known for its particularly strong furry literary emphasis, with writers’ workshops, author readings, panels featuring at least one of the furry specialty publishers, and (since 2011) an original furry anthology.

RAIn is a non-profit group which “exists primarily for the purpose of holding events to facilitate education in anthropomorphic literature, art and culture, and to facilitate the donation of funds to non-profit institutions that the board decides are worthy”.  RAIn filed for 501(c)(3) status in January 2013.

Name & Date / Theme / Location / Attendance / Parade

RainFurrest 2007: August 24-26, 2007. Holiday Inn, Seattle-Sea-Tac Airport Hotel, Seattle, WA. (370/41)

RainFurrest 2008: September 26-28, 2008. “Flight.” Seattle Airport, Marriott Hotel, Seattle, WA.  (599/89)

RainFurrest 2009: September 18-20, 2009. “Zombie Attack.” Seattle Airport, Marriott Hotel, Seattle, WA. (905/159)

RainFurrest 2010: September 24-26, 2010.  “Furst on the Moon.”  Seattle Airport, Marriott Hotel, Seattle, WA. (1,045/184)

RainFurrest 2011: September 22-25, 2011.  “Furry Camping.” Hilton Seattle Airport & Conference Center, Seattle, WA.  (1,420/???)

RainFurrest 2012: September 27-30, 2012. “Warehouse Furteen.” Hilton Seattle Airport & Conference Center, Seattle, WA. (1,705/???)

RainFurrest 2013: September 26-29, 2013. “Dancing in the Moonlight.” Hilton Seattle Airport & Conference Center, Seattle, WA. (2,202/???)

RainFurrest 2014: September 25-28, 2014. “Cyberpunk: Fur Meets Chrome.” Hilton Seattle Airport & Conference Center, Seattle, WA. (2,586/504)

RainFurrest 2015: September 24-27, 2015. “Swords and Sorcery.” Hilton Seattle Airport & Conference Center, Seattle, WA. (2,704/492)

Events

RainFurrest 2007:  The Masquerade only had three entries.  There were numerous panels and workshops, but the guest-of-honor dinner ($35) had notably poor food even by hotel poor food standards.  The convention sold out the hotel by a few days before it started.  The T-shirt was by Monika Livingstone.  There was no theme, but one was retroactively assigned:  The Rainforest.

Guests of Honor:  Artist G-o-H Monika Livingstone, Fan G-o-H Dennis Avner (Stalking Cat), Writer G-o-H Phil Geusz, Musical G-o-H Alexander James Adams.

Charity:  The Sarvey Wildlife Center  (almost $1,000.)

Chairmen or Organizers:  Gene Armstrong, Tank Winters (Trapa.)

RainFurrest 2008:  Registered member received airplane-style metal wings pins; brass for regular members, silver for patrons, and gold for members who were real pilots.  Events included a Fursuit Masquerade, a Pet Auction, a Plushie Costume Contest, an Ice Cream Social, workshops, gaming, and dances. WerePuppy did the T-shirt.  The hotel staff was reported as very friendly.  This was unofficially considered “RainFurrest I”, with the previous year’s as either “RainFurrest 0” or “a beta test”.

Guests of Honor:  Mark Brill (WerePuppy) (furry artist.)

Charity:  The Ferret Rescue Society   ($1,000+)

Chairmen or Organizers:  Tank Winters (Trapa.)

RainFurrest 2009:  RainFurrest 2009 had a Dealers Den, an Art Show, a large Fursuit Lounge, a Gaming Room with a DDR tournament, a Sponsor/Patron Lounge, a three-day writers’ workshop, and many panels and other workshops.  Events included a zombie game, the Fursuit Parade, the Ice Cream Social, a plushie costume contest, a Variety Show, the Guest of Honor dinner, a rant by 2, the Ranting Gryphon, a concert by Alexander James Adams, and dances with four DJs. The 42-page conbook had a wraparound color cover by Farore Nightclaw.  The T-shirt was also by Farore Nightclaw.

Guests of Honor:  Farore Nightclaw (furry artist), Adam Riggs (Nicodemus, fursuiter), Special G-o-H Matthew Wayne Davis (2, the Ranting Gryphon), Alexander James Adams, Kyell Gold.

Charity:  Critter Care Wildlife Society  ($536.78)

Chairmen or Organizers:  North.

RainFurrest 2010:  In 2010, RainFurrest became the sixth convention to surpass 1,000 attendees.  The “Furst on the Moon” theme was emphasized in a program throughout the convention of landing a fur on the Moon and returning him or her safely to fandom.  The fur was revealed by Dr. Werner von Wolfenstein to be a Cosmofur Siberian Husky of the Sovipaw Air Force.  In addition to the Charity Auction, there were tip jars in the con store with the faces of con staffers Gene, Aloha, North, and Trapa.  All donations went to the charity, and the jar getting the most donations got its staffer hit in the face with a pie by the volunteer who worked the most during the con.  Other events included a plushie costume contest, a Second Life social, a live model workshop, a furry high tea, and a Graveyard Greg book celebration with his first novel.  DragonDyne Publishing launched its new game, Neverwhen.  Kyell Gold held a writing workshop.  The T-shirt was by Balto.

Guests of Honor:  Artist G-o-H Albert C. Peña (Balto), Fursuiter G-o-H Kodi, Writer G-o-H Graveyard Greg.

Charity:  Northwest Wildlife Rehabilitation Center  ($3,000+)

Chairmen or Organizers:  North.

RainFurrest 2011:  RainFurrest’s first annual charity anthology went on sale:  Stories of Camp RainFurrest, printed by FurPlanet Productions; a 108-page trade paperback with 11 donated short stories for $10.00 with all proceeds donated to that year’s charity.  TaniDaReal drew both the conbook cover and the T-shirt.

Guests of Honor:  Artist G-o-H Tanja Freese (TaniDaReal), Writing G-o-H Alan Dean Foster, Fursuit G-o-H Deanna Larsson (Beetlecat), Artist Special Guest Astolpho.

Charity:  Love A Mutt Pet Rescue.

Chairmen or Organizers:  Loial.

RainFurrest 2012:  The presentation of the first (2012) ALAA Hall of Fame honorees, to those characters, people, books, or films that helped to mold furry fandom, was announced:  Bugs Bunny; Walt Disney; and the novel Watership Down by Richard Adams.  RainFurrest’s second annual charity anthology wasTails of a Clockwork World, 119 pages/eight donated stories with all sales going to the charity.  YamiBliss drew both the conbook cover and the T-shirt.

Guests of Honor:  Artist G-o-H Jeffrey Camion (YamiBliss), Writing G-o-H Elizabeth Ann Scarborough, Fursuit G-o-H Sara Howard (Matrices).

Charity:  Rabbit Meadows Sanctuary & Adoption Center.

Chairmen or Organizers:  Gene Armstrong.

RainFurrest 2013:  RainFurrest’s third annual charity anthology was Dancing in the Moonlight, 77 pages/five donated stories with all sales going to the charity.  Soulscape drew both the conbook cover and the T-shirt.

Guests of Honor:  Artist G-o-H Thea Reven (Soulscape), Fursuit G-o-H Temperance, Writing G-o-H FurPlanet Productions, Fandom G-o-H Fred Patten (in absentia), Writing Special Guest Phil Geusz.

Charity:  The Clouded Leopard Project ($6,454.17)

Chairmen or Organizers:  Aloha.

RainFurrest 2014:  The presentation of the third (2014) ALAA Hall of Fame honorees, to those characters, people, books, or films that helped to mold furry fandom, was announced:  Carl Barks; the novel Charlotte’s Web by E. B. White; and Osamu Tezuka.  RainFurrest’s fourth annual charity anthology wasFurtual Horizons;A Rainfurrest Anthology, 264 pages/eleven donated stories with all sales going to the charity.  The 48-page wraparound Program Book cover was by Egypt Urnash, who also did the T-shirt.

Guests of Honor:  Writing G-o-H Kyell Gold, Artist G-o-H Margaret Trauth (Egypt Urnash), Music G-o-H Jared Clark (Pepper Coyote), Fursuit G-o-H Croc.

Charity:  Cougar Mountain Zoological Park ($7,000)

Chairmen or Organizers:  Cerb.

RainFurrest 2015:  The Dealers’ Room was booked to capacity early.  Instead of putting later applicants on a waiting list as usual, the committee held a juried judging of all applicants.  This resulted in some long-time dealers being rejected and some first-time dealers being accepted, which resulted in some loud complaints. There were two 2015 charity anthologies; A Menagerie of Heroes for PG-13 stories, 322 pages/fourteen donated stories, and Naughty Sexy Furry Writing: Enter at Your Own Risk for NC-17 stories, 124 pages/six donated stories.  Jan did both the conbook cover and the T-shirt.

There was much unfavorable publicity from the perception that the RF committee discriminated against veteran fans in favor of promoting a “youth” atmosphere. Whether true or not, there were multiple examples of flamboyant drunken and other inappropriate public behavior from new teenage attendees, including severe vandalism; enough to result in the RainFurrest’s hotel since 2011 cancelling their contract and forcing RainFurrest to find a new venue for 2016.

Guests of Honor:  Artist G-o-H Jan, Writing G-o-H Renee Carter Hall (Poetigress), Fursuit G-o-H RedHyena.

Charity:  Cougar Mountain Zoological Park ($10,000+)

Chairmen or Organizers:  Rex Wolf.

[Questions:]

What were the 2011, 2012, and 2013 Fursuit Parade totals?

What were the 2011 and 2012 charity donations?

I have most general information for many cons.  What I still need is specifics for many cons – such as the Central Midwest Fur Meet 2012 attendance; the Fursuit Parade totals at EuroFurence 17, 19, 20, and 21; the FurFright Fursuit Parade totals for 2009, 2010, and 2011, and the amount of the FurFright 2013 charity donation.

I need illustrations for many cons.  Here are the Abando (Brazil) logo and the RusFURrence 2013 (Russia) T-shirt.

I can send the questions that I have about any convention to anyone who asks.

Best wishes;
Fred